中国股票市场与济增长的实证研究本科毕业论文.docxVIP

中国股票市场与经济增长关系的实证研究摘要我国股票市场经过短短二十多年的发展，已经由一个摸索尝试性的市场转变为我国经济体制中一个重要组成部分，但仍处在初期发展阶段，存在许多问题需要人们去研究：比如，股票市场今后如何与经济增长共同发展、互相促进才能推动国民经济步入良性循环之路，我们必须从股票市场与经济增长的相互关系中去认识、去研究，才具有理论和现实意义。针对上述问题，本文在大量研究材料的基础上，运用定性分析与定量研究相结合的方法，对我国股票市场与经济增长之间的关系进行了深入研究，详细论证了两者之间的关系。首先对股票市场与经济增长之间关系研究的现状进行了理论综述，重点评述了国内外学者关于股票市场与经济增长关系的一些较著名研究成果。然后在分析股票市场与经济增长的相互作用机制的基础上，选取了与经济增长相关的指标GDP环比增长率(GY)和与股票市场发展相关的指标资本化率(CAP)，交易率(VAL)及周转率(TUR)，应用2000年到2012年的经过季节调整后的季度时间序列数据，在对这些时间序列数据进行了平稳性检验的基础上，运用协整和格兰杰因果检验方法对我国股票市场与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证分析，并且从定量的角度对它们之间的关系进行了计量检验。检验结果表明当前我国股票市场发展与经济增长之间是弱相关关系，股市发展未能有效促进经济增长。最后，在前面研究的基础上，结合我国股票市场与经济的现状，提出了完善我国股票市场与经济增长关系的政策建议。关键词：股票市场；经济增长；平稳性检验；协整检验；格兰杰因果检验An Empirical Study on Relationship between StockMarket And Economic Growth In ChinaAbstractAfter about ten years development, Chinas stock market has been transformed the Chinas important part of economic system by an explored attempt Meanwhile, there remain many of problems to be discussed.For example, How stock market development grow with economic in future and How can they promote each other make the national economy a virtuous circle of the road. We must to know and study it from the relationship between the stock market and economic growth.Only in this way, can the study has theoretical and practical significance.In response to these problems, with a great deal of research datum, and the research method combining Quantitative researchinto qualitative analysis, the paper carries through deep analysis on the relationship between thestock market and economic growth in China, and in particular demonstrate the relation betweenthem. Firstly, the paper in traduces the definition and function of stock market, emphasizes on someoverseas and inland famous study result on stock market and economic growth. Based on theresearches on the interaction mechanism between the stock market and economic growth, the fifthchapter analyzes the relationship between them by using the co-integration and Grangermethod. The author choices the corr