海平面变化.docxVIP

Sea Level Change——海平面变化J. A. Church, J. M. GregoryIntroduction——引言Sea-level changes on a wide range of time and spacescales. Here we consider changes in mean sea level,that is, sea level averaged over a sufficient period oftime to remove fluctuations associated with surfacewaves, tides, and individual storm surge events. We focus principally on changes in sea level over the lasthundred years or so and on how it might change over the next one hundred years. However, to understandthese changes we need to consider what has happenedsince the last glacial maximum 20000 yearsago. We also consider the longer-term implications ofchanges in the earths climate arising from changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.海平面在时间和空间尺度上有着很大的变化。在这里，我们考虑的变化针对的是一个平均的海平面，也就是去除了与海面波高、潮汐和个别风暴潮相关起伏的影响，一个较长时期的海平面的平均值。我们把焦点放在近一百年来的海平面变化以及未来一百年海平面可能的变化趋势。然而，为了理解这些变化，我们需要考虑20000年前的末次冰盛期到底发生了什么；同时需要考虑由温室气体浓度变化带来的全球气候变化对海平面的长远影响。Changes in mean sea level can be measured withrespect to the nearby land (relative sea level) or afixed reference frame. Relative sea level, whichchanges as either the height of the ocean surface or the height of the land changes, can be measured by acoastal tide gauge.平均海平面可以通过近海陆地（相对海平面）或者一个固定的参考系统来测量。相对海平面随着大洋表面的高度或者陆地的高度变化而变化，可以通过沿海的验潮站测定。The world ocean, which has an average depth ofabout 3800 m, contains of 97% of the earths water.The Antarctic ice sheet, the Greenland ice sheet, and the hundred thousand non-polar glaciers/ ice caps,presently contain water sufficient to raise sea level by61 m, 7 m, and 0.5 m respectivelyif they were entirelymelted. Ground water stored shallower than 4000 mdepth is equivalentto about 25 m (12 m scored shallowerthan 50 m) of sea level change. Lakes and rivers hold the equivalent of less than l m, while theatmosphere accounts for only about 0.04 m.全球的海洋包含了地球97%的水资源，平均深度有3800米。南极冰盖和格林兰冰盖以及成百上千的非极地冰川和冰盖如果全部融化的话，分别可以导致海平面上升61米、7米和0.5米。深度在4000米以上的地下水对海平面变化的贡献为25（其中750米以上的地下水对海平面的贡献为12米）。河流和湖泊的影响不大于1米，而大气中的水分影响只有0.04米。On the time-s