Adeficitofcommonsense.docVIP

Fiscal austerity财政紧缩A deficit of common senseThe debate about budget cuts has become dangerously theological有关消减预算的争论已经变得像神学般危险了Oct 27th 2012 | from the print editionARGUMENTS about austerity have taken on an almost religious fervour. To some—such as Wolfgang Sch?uble, Germanys finance minister, or George Osborne, his British counterpart—tough fiscal policy is the cure for excessive debt; and any easing risks betraying a confidence-sapping loss of resolve. To others, todays austerity is self-defeating. Trying to cut deficits when economies are weak will lead to stagnation, they say, and even bigger debt burdens.有关紧缩政策的争论几乎达到了宗教狂热的程度。对某些人来说——如德国财长沃尔夫冈·朔伊布勒及其英国同行乔治·奥斯本——严厉的财政政策是治疗过度负债的良药；任何的松懈都有暴露信心缺失、决心松动的风险。对于另一些人来说，今天的紧缩政策是自欺欺人。他们认为，在经济虚弱的时候，消减赤字的企图将导致经济停滞，甚至会带来更沉重的债务负担。Emotions run high and both sides treat evidence sloppily. Foes of austerity pounced on a recent analysis by the IMF, which suggested that the economic impact of fiscal tightening in Europe had been worse than expected. Austerity advocates immediately queried the Funds regressions see article .双方争得面红耳赤，而他们对待证据的态度却是漫不经心。紧缩政策的反对者从IMF的一份最新分析报告中看到了希望，这份分析报告指出，欧洲财政紧缩政策对经济的影响没有达到预期效果。紧缩政策的支持者立即对IMF的只能政策倒退提出了质疑。Yet it is wrong to caricature austerity as good or bad. Austerity has hurt growth more than its proponents expected. But for many countries it has been less avoidable than its critics acknowledge. In most places the question is not whether to cut deficits, but how to cut them wisely.然而，将紧缩政策夸张地地说成是好或者不好都是错误的。紧缩政策对经济增长的伤害远远超出了其支持者的预想。但是，对于许多国家来说，同紧缩政策所遭受的批评相比，政策本身是多少可以避免的。在大多数地区，问题不是是否需要消减赤字，而是如何合理地消减赤字。Start with the relationship between austerity and growth. The argument that budget cuts might boost growth, common two years ago, has been discredited. Austerity can be expansionary if it leads to a sharp drop in interest rates, but that is not the case today. Many countries are all cutting at once, even as many households try to reduce their debts. Nominal interest rates in many place