计量经济学论文78064.doc

一 引言………………………………………………………….1 二 相关文献综述……………………………………………….1 三 理论观点…………………………………………………….2 四 实证分析…………………………………………………….2 五 结论………………………………………………………….17 六 启示及政策建议…………………………………………….18 参考文献…………………………………………………………20 附表………………………………………………………………21 四川省商品房价格的影响因素分析 作者姓名：肖霓 岳娴 专业班级：经济学 200608030126 200608030127 指导老师：高 辉 摘要 ： 一个省的商品房价格影响的因素有很多，可能取决于房地产开发的投资额、存款利率的高低、住房竣工面积、城镇居民人均可支配收入等因素.多年来许多经济学家对此做出了研究，并通过实证得出了如下结论：房地产价格与利率呈反比例关系，而投资额、居民人均可支配收入则与房地产价格同向变化等结论。 本文对四川省商品房价格影响因素进行了实证分析，选取了1994-2007年商品房价格影响因素房地产开发的投资额、存款利率的高低，住房竣工面积、城镇居民人均可支配收入等时间序列数据进行分析，得出了房地产开发投资额和城镇居民人均可支配收入对四川省商品房价格有显著正向影响的结论，并提出相应的政策建议。 关键词：商品房 价格 影响因素 最小二乘法 The analysis of the factors which influences the price of the housing prices of Sichuan Province Author: Xiao Ni, Yue Xian Major: Economics Guided by Professor Gao Hui Abstract: There may be many elements which have an influence on the prices of the economical housing of one province; the prices may be determined by the real estate investment made by the estate investors, the interest rate, and the completion of the housing area, the urban residents per capital deposable income, and so on. For many years, lots of economists have done research on this project, and then come to a conclusion that the interest rate has a reverse influence on the prices of the economical housing, while the urban residents per capital disposable income has a positive infect on it. In this article we made an analysis on the factors which influence the prices of the economical housing, choosing the time series statistics from 1994-2007 which includes the investment made by the estate investors, the one-year deposit interest rate, and the completion of the housing area, the urban residents per capital deposable income. And we draw a conclusion that the investment made by the estate investors and the urban residents per capital deposable income have a positive infect on the prices of the real estate, and we made a couple of suggestions concern