intoUsingGoogleTrendsasanAdministrativeDataSource.pptVIP

An Investigation into Using Google Trends as an Administrative Data Source in ONS Daniel Ayoubkhani Time Series Analysis Branch Survey Methodology and Statistical Computing Division Office for National Statistics, UK Overview Introduction to Google Trends 2. Using Google Trends Data An Investigation Conducted by ONS: 3. Data 4. Methods Results Conclusions and Considerations 1. Introduction to Google Trends Google provide weekly data on changes in search query share (rather than volume) need to convert to levels and aggregate to months/quarters Data are available: back to the start of January 2004 for individual search queries, 25 top level categories and hundreds of lower level categories for free, to anyone with a Gmail account, from: /trends 1. Introduction to Google Trends Source: Google Trends Example – Google searches for “statistics” 1. Introduction to Google Trends Example – Search query to top level classification: “statistics” Demographics Social Sciences Reference Poverty Hunger Social Issues Advocacy People Society 2. Using Google Trends Data Choi, H and Varian, H (2009) Predicting the Present with Google Trends: Paper pioneered use of Google Trends data as a nowcasting tool for economic variables Fitted log–linear models to US retail, automotive and home sales Predictive performance of models increased when Google Trends terms were included Many studies using Google Trends data for prediction of economic variables published since then 2. Using Google Trends Data Potential uses of Google Trends (GT) data identified by ONS: Quality assurance of outputs Nowcasting of outputs Replacement of existing data sources Focus of this investigation: quality assurance of the UK Retail Sales Index (RSI) 2. Using Google Trends Data Aims of this investigation: Fit benchmark models that are representative of current ONS practice Fit alternative models that include appropriate GT terms as predictors Compare models using empirical measures Draw conclusions to inf