R语言在时间序中的应用.docVIP

时间序列分析在人口预测问题中的应用 摘 要 时间序列分析是研究动态数据的动态结构和发展变化规律的统计方法。以 1949 年至 2004 年中国大陆人口自然增长率为例, 用时间序列分析和统计学软件R建立模型, 并对人口进行预测, 取得较好的效果。说明时间序列分析在人口预测问题上是有效的。 关键词: ARMA 模型; R软件; 平稳性; 可逆性 Application of time series analysis in population prediction Abstract Time series analysis is a statistic method studying dynamic structure of dynamic data and the law of de-velopment and change. Based on the example of population growth rate between 1949 and 2004 in the mainlandof China, mathematic models were established with time series analysis method and statistic software R,and population was p