毕业（设计）论文--巴西旅游业的动态分析--挑战和建议[文献翻译]2011--01--09.docVIP

原 文: An analysis of the dynamics of the tourism industry in Brazil：challenges and recommendations 出 处： International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management 作 者： Filipe Sobral,Alketa Peci,Gustavo Souza Abstract Purpose – The main purpose of this study is to present an analysis of the dynamics of the tourism market in South America and, more specifically, in Brazil, by measuring and analyzing the growth in tourists’ arrivals to the region between 1998 and 2002. Design/methodology/approach – This study uses the shift-share technique that decomposes the growth of the number of tourists into various components, enabling in-depth diagnosis of the dynamics of the sector in the period. Findings – Despite the fact that Brazil is the leading tourist destination in South America, the study shows that Brazil has been losing ground in relation to some of its neighbors in South America. The study also revealed the impact of 9/11 and Argentina’s crises and the growing participation of the European tourist in Brazil. Originality/value – Despite some limitations, this technique has the advantage of focusing on a region scarcely studied in mainstream tourism researches and offering Brazilian policy-makers a new methodology such that they may take advantage of emerging opportunities and create competitive advantages for the country. Keywords :Tourism, Public policy, Brazil, South America Introduction Tourism is a sector experiencing major growth in terms of the global economy. Ever since the 1950s when international travel became accessible to the public in general, the number of tourists has been growing at an average rate of 6.8 percent per year. Estimates are that in 2005 the number of incoming tourists totaled 808 million. The trends for the future of the tourism industry indicate that by 2020 the number of incoming international tourists will be in the order of 1.6 billion (World Tourism Organization, 2006). Accor