《投资分析与组合管理 Frank K. Reilly》ch11.pptVIP

Lecture Presentation Software to accompanyInvestment Analysis and Portfolio ManagementSeventh Editionby Frank K. Reilly Keith C. Brown Chapter 11 – Macroeconomic and Market Analysis: The Global Asset Allocation Decision Questions to be answered: What are the expected and the empirical relationships between economic activity and security markets? What is the macroeconomic approach to estimating future market returns? Chapter 11 What are the major macroeconomic techniques used to project the securities market? What is the leading economic indicator approach? What are its uses and shortcomings and can it be used to predict stock prices? What are the expected and the empirical relationships between the growth of the money supply and stock prices? Chapter 11 What is meant by excess liquidity and how is it measured? What is the effect of monetary policy on stock prices in the United States and around the world? What are the expected and the empirical relationships between inflation, interest rates, and bond prices? What are the expected and empirical relationships between inflation and stock prices? Chapter 11 When analyzing world security markets, what is the relationship between inflation and interest rates in alternative countries? What is the effect of inflation and interest rates on exchange rates? How do the basic valuation variables differ among countries? How do stock price returns among countries correlate when considering domestic returns and returns in U.S. dollars? Chapter 11 What factors should be considered when analyzing the outlook for a foreign economy and its stock and bond market? What is the asset allocation procedure for a global portfolio? For a world asset allocation, what is meant by normal weighting, underweighting, and overweighting? Economies and Markets A strong relationship exists between the economy and the stock market Security markets reflect what is going on in an economy because the value of an investment is determined by its e