统计预测与决策文2.docVIP

期 末 作 业 课程: 统计预测和决策 题目: 股票投资收益模型分析 姓名: ljy 学号: ********** 日期: 2013年12月29日 目录 摘要············································· 关键字··········································· 前言·············································· 论文主题··········································· 结果与分析········································· 参考文献··········································· 股票投资收益模型分析 摘要 投资有多种，我们知道股票投资是一种获得资金的途径之一，同时，在投资的同时，也存在着一些风险，所以，在股票投资方面，要对其投资一定的分析。 式中，为一次指数平滑值，为二次指数平滑值，为本期观测值。 由两个平滑值可以计算线性平滑模型的两个参数： 得到线性平滑模型： 在这里， 式就是布朗单一参数线性指数平滑的预测模型，通常称为线性平滑模型。 结果与分析 两种投资方案收益的计算过程： 购买股票方案的收益 通过预测与计算得出2014年1月的股票开盘价为（如表1） 通过预测与计算得出2014年1月的股票收盘价为（如表2） 收益为：S1= (2)购买年利率为12%的某理财产品一个月的收益为: 从而得出,即投资股票方案的收益比购买年利率为12%的某理财产品一个月的收益高。所以选择购买股票方案。 参考文献 [1] 徐国祥.统计预测与决策第四版[M].上海财经大学出版，2012：85-87 [2] 庄赟.二次指数平滑法的应用[D].2011:1-3. 致谢 poverty. In the area of poverty alleviation, to rely on e-commerce business park, active docking Alibaba group rural treasure, the stars plan and featured the Museum project to accelerate the implementation of electronic commerce hundred thousand rural village project, free train operation staff, offering online support help for poor families, the provision of micro-credit support, helping them to use e-commerce platform to escape poverty. In poverty reduction, give a man a fish and feed him for a day, to targeted skills training and entrepreneurship training free of charge for the poor, increase employment, entrepreneurial skills, ensure the transfer of training people, poverty. In terms of student poverty, high school, vocational college students stipends and other costs, can be through the one card, such as direct subsidies to households. In terms of financial poverty, in order to further increase the size