基于遗传算法的自动气象站气象数据预测.docVIP

基于遗传算法的自动气象站气象数据预测 　　摘要：为了保证自动气象站数据观测质量，提高其可信度，结合遗传算法的优化群体特点，提出了一种基于遗传算法的气象数据分析预测方法。在原始气象数据平整预处理后建立了数据值与时间的多项式，对多项式中的参数个数群体进行二进制编码和随机初始化，采用自适应交叉概率的交叉遗传操作，结合选择以及变异遗传操作产生新的模型组合，依据适应度函数求得最优群体，利用最小二乘法根据样本数据确定的多项式关系得出预测结果。将该方法应用于自动气象站某段时间内的电场强度的预测，结果表明该方法具有较好的预测准确度，同时具有鲁棒性，可以为自动气象站的稳定运行提供技术保障。 　　关键词：信息处理技术；自动气象站；数据预测；遗传算法 　　中图分类号：P413 文献标识码：A 文章编号：0439-8114（2013）20-4917-06 　　Meteorological Data Prediction of Automatic Weather Station Based on Genetic Algorithm 　　JIANG Chen，XING Hong-yan 　　（College of Electronic and Information Engineering/Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Observation and Information Processing， Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology，Nanjing 210044，China） 　　Abstract： In order to ensure the accuracy of observation data of automatic weather station and improve its credibility， a meteorological data analysis and forecasting method based on genetic algorithm and combined with the population optimum characteristic of genetic algorithm was proposed. The polynomial between data values and time was established after the smooth pretreatment of time series of raw meteorological data. The number of parameters of polynomial group was encoded and initialized. Cross-genetic manipulation was utilized based on adaptive crossover. A new model portfolio combining the selection with mutation genetic operations was engendered. The optimal group could be calculated based on the fitness function. The forecasting results could be obtained using the least squares method based on the polynomial determined by sample data. The method was applied for predicting the electric field strength in the automatic weather station during a certain period of time. The experimental results showed that this method had good prediction accuracy and robustness， thus could provide technical support for the stable running of automatic weather station. 　　Key words： information processing technology； automatic weather stations； data prediction； genetic algorithm 　　现代自动气