伯南克宏观经济学Macro Chapter 8.pptVIP

Andrew B. Abel Ben S. Bernanke Dean Croushore Chapter Outline What is a Business Cycle? Business Cycle Facts Business Cycle Analysis: A Preview * What Is a Business Cycle? U.S. research on cycles began in 1920 at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) NBER maintains the business cycle chronology—a detailed history of business cycles NBER sponsors business cycle studies * What Is a Business Cycle? Burns and Mitchell (Measuring Business Cycles, 1946) makes five main points about business cycles: Business cycles are fluctuations of aggregate economic activity, not a specific variable There are expansions and contractions Economic variables show comovement—they have regular and predictable patterns of behavior over the course of the business cycle The business cycle is recurrent, but not periodic The business cycle is persistent * What Is a Business Cycle? Expansions and contractions Aggregate economic activity declines in a contraction or recession until it reaches a trough (Figure 8.1) After a trough, activity increases in an expansion or boom until it reaches a peak A particularly severe recession is called a depression The sequence from one peak to the next, or from one trough to the next, is a business cycle Peaks and troughs are turning points Turning points are officially designated by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee * Figure 8.1 A business cycle * What Is a Business Cycle? The business cycle is recurrent, but not periodic Recurrent means the pattern of contraction–trough–expansion–peak occurs again and again Not being periodic means that it doesnt occur at regular, predictable intervals * What Is a Business Cycle? The business cycle is persistent Declines are followed by further declines; growth is followed by more growth Because of persistence, forecasting turning points is quite important * Table 8.1 NBER Business Cycle Turning Points and Durations of Post–1854 Business Cycles * Business Cycle Facts All business cycles have features