中国货币政策的通货膨胀目标制设计.docVIP

“后危机时代的金融改革与发展”金融青年论坛论文 中国货币政策的通货膨胀目标制设计 ——基于货币政策有效性的思考  摘 要 Abstract Based on the thought of the validity of the current monetary policy which targets on the money supply, this paper establishes a Vector Automated Regression Model, including variables such as Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product and General Money Supply, to test the effectiveness of the monetary policy, using the quarterly financial data from 1996 to 2008. And it is regretful that the results are not satisfying. Taking into account the transition of monetary policy, we studied a new framework for monetary policy named as Inflation Targeting, which is practiced in many countries both developed and under-developed and what’s more important is that it’s highly effective. Successively, we introduced the characteristics and pre-conditions of this framework for monetary policy and analyzed the current situations in China one after another to testify whether the pre-conditions are satisfied. Then using a State Space Model derived from the past economic data, we enacted several parameters which need to be set if the inflation targeting is adopted in China. Lastly, several suggestions are given by the author if China wants a conversion from the current monetary policy the present intermediate target of which is money supply to the framework which is recommended in this thesis. The conclusion of this paper is that though the pre-conditions now is not entirely satisfied in China, the monetary policy should be reformed from now on, in view of the validity of the policy which is designed to promote the development of the economy. We are to establish inflation targeting during the process of reforming and from then on the pre-conditions dissertated in the article will be satisfied gradually as is discussed in the paper. And what the final goal is to get the present monetary policy out of dilemma and to accelerate prosperity again in the years behind. Key Words: The Validity of Monetary Po