公司间贷款委托贷款)是房地产业的生命线？.pptx

Loans between companies is the fastest-growing category of shadow banking in China, but with next to no data on where such loans are going, their effeect on the economy is a black box. 公司间贷款（委托贷款）是中国增长最快的一种影子银行业务，这种贷款的去向几乎无数据可查，所以对经济的影响一直是个谜团。 But two academic papers published over the last year on such lending - known as entrusted loans - offer a rare glimpse into how these loans work. The findings? Entrusted loans may have become the single most important factor keeping Chinas property developers afloat. More broadly, the risk of such lending might be less than the huge issuance figures suggest. 不过去年发表的两份学术报告让人们有机会一窥其庐山真面目。根据这些报告，委托贷款可能已经成为中国房地产市场最重要的生命线，而从更广泛的角度说，尽管委托贷款规模庞大，风险却似乎并没有数据预示的那样大。 Nonbank or shadow lending has ballooned in recent years as regulators have repeatedly tried to cut off certain sectors of the economy from formal financing channels. But each time Beijing has tried to crimp one source of credit, another avenue appears to take up the slack. 近年来，由于监管部门切断了某些经济领域的正规融资途径，非银行信贷或影子银行得到了迅速扩张的机会。政府每一次限制某方面的贷款，就会有另一条信贷途径填补空缺。 Now its entrusted loans. Such forms of lending increased by a net 2.55 trillion yuan ($407.38 billion) last year, equivalent to 29% of all new yuan bank loans issued during the year. Thats up from 1.28 trillion yuan in 2012, when they stood at only 16% of bank loans. 委托贷款亦不例外。去年，中国委托贷款规模净增人民币2.55万亿元（4,073.8亿美元），相当于全年新增人民币贷款的29%。2012年委托贷款增加1.28万亿元，占当年新增人民币贷款的比例仅为16%。 Based on a survey of nine major banks in Shanghai for a paper submitted in May, Wang Jiahui, an assistant researcher at the Shanghai headquarters of the Peoples Bank of China, found that in 2011 about 21% of all entrusted loans went to the property sector, up from 19% in 2010. 中国央行上海总部助理研究员王家辉在去年5月份发表的一份报告中指出，2011年，中国约21%的委托贷款流入房地产市场，高于2010年的19%。这份报告对上海九家大型银行做了调查。 And in a paper late last year based on a review of entrusted loans that were issued by listed Chinese companies between 2004 and 2013, two academics at the Huazhong University of Science and Technology found