论文GDP方案.docVIP

摘 要 国内生产总值(Gross Domestic Product)是国民经济核算的核心指标。它不仅能从总体上度量国民产出和收入规模，也能从整体上度量经济波动和经济周期状态，成为宏观经济中最受关注的经济数据，被认为是衡量国民经济发展、判断宏观经济运行状况的一个重要指标，也是政府制定经济发展战略和经济政策的重要依据。因此，准确的分析预测 GDP 具有重要的理论和实际意义。 时间序列是指同一种现象在不同时间上的相继观察值排列而成的一组数字序列。时间序列预测方法则是通过时间序列的历史数据揭示现象随时间变化的规律，将这种规律延伸到未来，从而对该现象的未来做出预测。 民勤县是典型的农业县，严酷的自然环境和脆弱的工业基础，严重制约着地方经济的发展。因此更应该对当地GDP进行深入分析研究，以便及时了解其经济发展动向，作出有利于提高当地经济水平的相关决策。 本文以民勤县1961年至2010年人均GDP 数据资料为依据，利用SPSS 软件对数据进行时间序列分析，建立时间序列模型，并对模型进行检验，最后利用所建模型对民勤县未来 10 年的生产总值做出预测。通过分析，得出以下结论：（1）通过SPSS软件对民勤县1961-2010年人均GDP数据建立ARIMA（0,2,12）模型，拟合效果较好，比较准确地对未来10年的数据进行了预测；（2）民勤县实际人均GDP值有着明显的上升趋势，且近年来增速加快，说明该县正处于经济高速发展阶段。 关键词：GDP；时间序列；预测；ARIMA模型；趋势分析 Abstract GDP(Gross Domestic Product) is the core of the national economic accounting.It can not only weigh the national products and income size as a whole, but also weigh the economic fluctuation and the periodic status of the economy in general.Thus the data of GDP has become the most concerned economic statistics in macro economy and is regarded as an important index for assessing the national economic development and for judging the operating status of macro economy.Besides, it is also the vital basis for government to set down economic developmental strategies and economic policies.Therefore it has great theoretical and realistic significance to analyze and forecast this criterion accurately. Time series is a series of number which got by observing the same phenomenon in different period of time.The predicting way of time series is achieved by exploring the laws that phenomenal change with time, in the historical statistics of time series. Time series extend the laws to the future so as to predict the future of a phenomenon. Minqin county is a typical agricultural county, the harsh natural environment and the weak foundation of industy, seriously restricts the development of local economy. So it is the local GDP that should be studied in a deep-going way, then to understand its economic development trend on time, to make