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RESEARCH The Wilderness Use Simulation Model Applied to Colorado River Boating in Grand Canyon National Park, USA 研究荒野使用模拟模型及其应用科罗拉多河在大峡谷国家划船美国公园 A. HEATON UNDERHILL Cooperative National Park Resources Studies Unit 125 Biological Sciences East University of Arizona Tucson, Arizona 85721, USA A. BUSA XABA Department of Mathematics University of Swaziland PC Kwaluseni, Swaziland RONALD E. BORKAN School of Renewable Natural Resources University of Arizona Tucson, Arizona 85721, USA 答：希顿昂德希尔合作国家公园资源研究组125生物科学东亚利桑那大学85721 ，美国亚利桑那州图森A. BUSA XABA数学系斯威士兰大学PC Kwaluseni ，斯威士兰罗纳德大肠杆菌BORKAN可再生自然资源学院亚利桑那大学85721 ，美国亚利桑那州图森 ABSTRACT / A modification of the Shechter-Lucas Wilder- ness Use Simulation Model (WUSM) for peak season boating on the Colorado River through Grand Canyon National Park, USA, is evaluated as a tool for making management deci- sions. A new microcomputer program to select trip itineraries for inclusion in the WUSM that was developed as part of this study is presented. This program simplifies user input and expands the WUSMs usefulness as a tool for management decisions by randomizing itinerary schedules based on prob- abilities developed from actual use of sites by canyon vis- itors. Model usefulness is demonstrated by simulating various management changes and comparing use levels of attraction sites and campgrounds as well as numbers of encounters between parties. The WUSM is being used as part of an on- going study, to reflect the impact of fluctuating flow regimes on river trips. through the turbines at Glen Canyon Dam抽象/一个修改的Shechter卢卡斯·怀尔德内斯使用模拟模型（ WUSM ）为旺季划船通过科罗拉多河大峡谷国家公园，美国，被评为决策管理决策的工具sions 。一种新的微机程序选择旅行路线列入开发这部分WUSM研究提出。该方案简化了用户的输入和作为一个管理工具，扩大WUSM的实用性基于概率，随机行程时间表的决定从实际使用网站开发能力峡谷VIS-itors 。通过模拟各种模型的有效性证明管理变革和吸引力比较使用量地点和营地以及遭遇数字各方之间。在WUSM正在使用的一个组成部分正在进行的研究，以反映脉动流制度的影响通过涡轮机在格伦峡谷大坝对河流人次。 Following the closure of Glen Canyon Dam in 1964, the volume of boating and raf