Climate Change UWMadison Department of 气候变化威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校的系.ppt

* * * * * * * * * * Projected Global Warming Modeling the last 150 years, we have a good idea of Greenhouse gas emissions by humans Vegetation changes Future projections of climate change needs estimations of Greenhouse gas emissions Population changes New technologies Vegetation Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and UN Publishes special reports on topics relevant to climate change “Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (90% likelihood) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations.” “The probability that this is caused by natural climatic processes alone is less than 5%.”- IPCC 4th Assessment Report Projected Global Warming A2 → Slow economic/technological growth, high population growth A1B → Rapid economic/technological growth, population peaks midcentury B1 → Medium population/economic growth, emphasizing local solutions and sustainability How will a potential global average warming affect climate? Land areas are going to warm more than ocean areas As snow-covered tundra melts, boreal forests will absorb 3 times as much solar energy More frequent intense precipitation events and flooding Warmer air temperatures hold more water vapor Polar front and jet will shift northward Subtropical regions will be warmer and drier Shift in mid-latitude weather systems northward A warmer planet will see a rise in sea level. Warmer water is “thicker” Melting ice caps Supporters of Global Warming and its Connection to Increased Amounts of Greenhouse Gases say… The rise in CO2 and other greenhouse gases is definitely anthropogenic Historical temperature records show an increase of 0.4-0.8oC in the last 100 years This has been an unusually warm period when comparing it to the last 1000 years CO2 is a first order forcing of climate change There will be long term ramifications if we don’t do something now! Opponents