中国利率政策传导效果..docVIP

试论中国利率政策的传导效果 彭光伟 Analysis of Transmission Effect of Interest Rate Policy in China Peng, Guang wei 2010年4月21日 摘 要 货币政策传导机制是货币政策的核心内容，直接关系到货币政策如何对实质经济产生作用，而利率手段是政府调控经济的重要工具，世界主要经济体都频繁调节利率。长期以来，中国货币政策的传导途径单一，主要局限于传统的银行信贷渠道，而信贷传导是以金融市场存在缺陷为前提的，利率传导机制发挥作用的基础是发达的金融市场，因此随着金融市场的发展，利率在中国货币政策传导中的作用将越来越重要。中国虽未实现利率市场化，但在缺乏其他资产价格作用的条件下，利率仍会对经济运行发生重要影响。因此，研究中国货币政策的利率传导机制具有重要的现实意义，它有助于加深人们对中国宏观经济金融运行中的许多现实问题的认识，有助于弄清阻碍货币政策传导的体制性和制度性问题，从而为进一步深化金融改革提供理论依据。 本文在借鉴和吸收前人研究成果的基础上，采用了理论性研究和实证研究相结合的方法，构建了关于货币政策利率传导机制有效性研究的合理的分析框架。文章首先介绍了西方货币政策利率理论，着重分析了这些理论发挥作用的途径和模式；其次，对中国货币政策利率传导机制进行了实证分析；接着针对中国利率传导机制表现出的独特现象提出了政策建议。 关键词：利率理论；利率传导机制； 货币政策 Abstract The transmission mechanism is the core of the study of monetary policy and affects the economy directly .The interest rate is a kind of important tool to regulate macro-economy for the government. However the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in China has been limited to the credit channel for a long time. The precondition of the credit channel is the imperfect financial market, therefore, as the development of the financial market, the interest rate transmission mechanism will play an important role in promoting economy growth in the future and the transmission mechanism should be transferred from the credit supply mechanism to the interest rate mechanism with the changes in the financial system and structure and the transition of financial macro-adjustment. Besides, the interest rate will still affect the economy greatly in spite of the financial restraint policies of interest rate controlled by government. So, it is very important to study the interest rate mechanism of monetary policy for promoting economy growth. This is also the main research clue of this article. The author uses the achievements of former studies of reference, and gives the own viewpoints by constructing a proper structure to analyze the subject. First, the article introduces main theories of interest rate transmission in western countries, and then studies th