企业退休职养老金制度改革.doc

企业退休职工养老金制度的改革方案 摘 要 对问题一：我们根据题中给出的数据和条件，结合中国最近几年经济发展增长趋势和未来经济战略目标，假设未来中国经济发展呈现阻滞指数增长模式，工资增长形势与国家经济发展形势相同，建立符合未来经济发展趋势的增长阻滞logistic模型，用Matlab编程求解得到平均工资与时间的关系。并进行吻合度图像检验，由此预测2011到2035山东省职工平均工资（见表1-1）。 对问题二：我们首先计算出该各年龄段职工工资与企业平均工资之比作为职工缴费指数的参考值，然后建立养老金替代率模型进而得出不同情况下的养老金替代率（见表2-4），最后通过加权求和方法得出六种情况下的综合替代率。 对问题三：我们建立养老金缺口的精算模型，然后分别对（55岁 ，60岁，65岁）退休并从退休后一直领取养老金到75岁3种情况下的养老金缺口，运用 Excel软件进行求解，并分别计算对3种退休情况的收支平衡。对问题四：我们首先建立计算替代率和养老金缺口的模型，得到：替代率Z=45.656%，资金缺口=691432，并对缴费年限、领取年限、银行年利率、统筹基金缴纳比例、个人账户基金缴纳比例等5个因素作灵敏度分析，得出每个因素对替代率和养老金缺口的灵敏程度。 关键词：养老金;logistic模型;收支平衡模型;灵敏度分析 PENSIONS FOR RETIREES OF ENTERPRISES REFORM ABSTRACT For problem 1: According to the topic given in the data and conditions, combined with Chinas economic development in recent years economic growth trends and future strategic target, and block index, assuming that the future development of Chinese economy growth pattern, wage growth situation and national economic development, we establish conforms to the development trend of future economic growth retardation logistic model, Matlab programming is average wages relationship with time.And alignment image inspection, thus predicting 2011 to 2035 in shandong province worker average wage (see table 1-1). For problem 2: we first calculate the worker wages with the enterprise average wage of all ages than as reference of worker pay cost index, then to establish pension replacement rate model under different conditions ,and pension replacement rate (see table 2-4), finally through the method of weighted summation,we get the composite replacement rate of six cases. For problem 3: we establish pension gap of actuarial model. Actuarial model, we establish a pension gap and then use the Excel software respectively for retirement (55,60,65) and retirement pension until 75 - year - old pension gap calculation of the three kinds of cases, and calculate the balance of three kinds of retirement. For problem 4: we first set up calculating replace