美國股市的九月效应.docVIP

As they turn the calendar to September, investors have good reason to be wary. 日子行进到九月，投资者有必要警惕起来了。  The docket is full of news that could disrupt the Standard Poors 500s roughly 7% climb since June. On Friday, the Labor Department releases the latest jobs figures. On Sept. 12, a German court rules on the constitutionality of a critical rescue fund for the euro zone. And the Federal Reserve is expected soon to make clear whether there will be a third round of quantitative easing. 从日程表上的重要事件来看，标准普尔500指数自六月以来大约7%的升幅随时可能玩完。8月31日，美国劳工部(Labor Department)公布了最新的就业数据。9月12日，德国某法院将就欧元区一个关键的救助基金计划是否符合宪法规定作出裁决。此外，美联储(Federal Reserve)估计很快也将就是否推出第三轮“量化宽松”政策作出明确表态。  But of special interest to historians is the calendar itself. Put simply, Sept. 1 marks the start of a historically miserable month for stocks. 但在史学家的眼里，日程表本身最有意思。因为历史经验表明，一旦日历翻到9月1日，对美国股市来说就意味着悲惨的一个月开始了。  That isnt reason enough for investors to make any drastic moves with their portfolios. But they could profit by avoiding stocks that have suffered pullbacks, say some analysts. 这当然不足以促使投资者对自己的投资组合作出任何重大调整。但有分析师表示，投资者如果能够规避那些历来习惯在九月下跌的股票，就可能获利。  Since 1926, in any given month, stocks of large companies have risen 0.9% on average, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. But in September, they have fallen by 0.8%, the only month with a negative average return. 据美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)统计，自1926年以来的任意月份，大盘股平均上涨0.9%，但唯有九月其平均表现是下跌的，这个月大盘股平均下跌0.8%。  For whatever reason, theres a predictable pattern where September has bad performance, says Steven DeSanctis a strategist with Bank of America Merrill Lynchs equity research team. 美银美林股票研究团队的策略师史蒂文·德森提斯(Steven DeSanctis)表示，不论出于何种原因，九月美股表现差已经有定式可循。  The trend has baffled researchers for decades. Striking September events, such as the 2008 collapse of Lehman Bros. and the 2001 terrorist attacks, are partly responsible for the bad average, but they cant explain the problems entirely. 这种定式已经困扰了研究人员数十年。一些“碰巧”发生在九月份的大事件，例如2008年的雷曼兄弟(Lehman Bros)倒闭、20