现代气候学第6章海-气相互作用_2016解读.ppt

An? example? of? prediction? of? El Ni?o? SST? by? a? NCEP coupled? ocean-atmosphere model six? months? in? advance? during? 1997-98? El Ni?o? event. Prediction of El Ni?o? SST Predictions? by? the? coupled? ocean-atmosphere? model? of ECMWF? 1997-98? El Ni?o? event? and? verification? with observations.? The? black? curve? is? the? observations.? Each? bunch? of? colored? lines? represent? an? ensemble? of? prediction.? Ensemble? of? prediction? 哥伦比亚大学IRI International Research Institute for Climate and Society Season La Ni?a Neutral El Ni?o ASO 2007 60% 39% 1% SON 2007 58% 41% 1% OND 2007 56% 42% 2% NDJ 2008 53% 44% 3% DJF 2008 50% 45% 5% JFM 2008 45% 48% 7% FMA 2008 40% 50% 10% MAM 2008 35% 51% 14% AMJ 2008 30% 51% 19% MJJ 2008 25% 50% 25% IRI Probabilistic ENSO Forecast for NINO3.4 Region - Made in August 2007 * La nina 6.6.2 印度洋海气相互作用 第一模态 * 第二模态 * 1）偶极子模（IOD, Indian Ocean Dipole) 基本概念：赤道东南印度洋海水异常变冷，赤道西印度洋海水异常变暖，即西暖东冷为正偶极子事件，反之为负偶极子事件。 印度洋偶极子关键海温区域 暖 冷 正偶极子事件 * 1997.11 Saji N.H., Goswami B.N., Vinayachandran P.N., Yamagata T., 1999: A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean, Nature, 401, 360-363. * * IOD指数 印度洋西部（50?—70?E，10?S—10?N）和东部（90? —110?E，10?S—0）区域平均的SST距平之差定义为IOD指数 2）印度洋海盆一致模（IOBM, Indian Ocean Basin Mode ） 印度洋SST为一致正异常的模态称为印度洋海盆一致模（IOBM） 。与El Nino有较好的关系，近年来的研究表明， El Nino 对次年气候的影响是通过印度洋海盆SST一致模来实现的。 * * Nino3 IOBM (Yang et al., 2007) IOBM模态是对ENSO的响应 * 印度洋异常海温对亚洲及中国气候的影响 通过热力异常加热大气，引起大气环流(Walker环流，Hadley环流等 )的异常 通过海面水汽通量异常，引起大气中水汽含量，水汽输送的变化 通过影响ENSO，间接影响天气气候 * 海盆一致模(IOBM)的影响 * IOD 对ISMR 的影响 Whenever the ENSO-ISMR correlation is low (high), the IOD-ISMR correlation is high (low). * IOD 对澳大利亚降水 的影响 IOD对澳大利亚干旱的影响 * Our climate system is very complicated. It involves the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, biosphere, lithosphere, and the human activities. This figure shows the horizontal pattern of the annual mean sea surface salinity. The maximum salinity lies in the subtropical belt where the evaporation is much greater than precip