(工程风险管理文献翻译.docxVIP

1.1Change is inherent in construction work. For years, industry has had avery poor reputation for coping with the adverse effects of change, withmany projects failing to meet deadlines and cost and quality targets. Thisis not too surprising considering that there are no known perfect engineers,anymore than there are perfect designs or that the forces of nature behavein a perfectly predictableway. Change cannot be eliminated, but by apply-ing the principles of risk management, engineers are able to improve theeffective management of this change.变化是固有的建设工作。多年来，行业已经有很差的声誉，为应对变化的不利影响，许多项目未能按时完成，成本和质量目标。这是不是太令人惊讶的考虑，有没有已知??的完美工程师，再比有完美的设计，或自然的力量的表现在完全predictableway。改变不能被淘汰，??而是通过申请，ING风险管理的原则，工程师能够提高这一变化的有效管理。变化存在在建设工作中。多年来，行业内许多项目因没有没有按时完成或超出预算或没有达到质量标准，行业在应对变化所带来的负面影响上有很差的声誉。变化不能被完全消除，但是通过风险管理，工程师能够更有效地管理变化。Change is normally regarded in terms of its adverse effects on projectcost estimates and programmes. In extreme cases, the risk of these timeand cost overruns can invalidate the economic case for a project, turning a potentially pro?table investment into a loss-making venture. A riskevent implies that there is a range of outcomes for that event which couldbe both more and less favourable than the most likely outcome, andthat each outcome within the range has a probability of occurrence. Theaccumulation, or combinations of risks can be termed project risk. Thiswill usually be calculated using a simulation model (see Chapter 7). It isimportant to try to capture all the potential risks to the project even ifthey are not strictly events or a calculation of project risk.变化通常被视为其对项目的不利影响成本估算和方案。在极端情况下，这些风险项目成本超支无效的经济情况下，亏损的风险变成一个潜在的有利可图的投资。一个风险事件意味着该事件是有成果的范围可既比最可能的结果不太有利，每个结果的范围内有一个发生的概率。 “可以称为项目风险的积累，或风险组合。这通常会使用仿真模型（见第七章）计算。这是重要尝试捕获所有潜在风险的项目，即使它们不是严格的事件或项目风险计算。人们常认为变化会给项目成本预算带来负面影响。在极端情况下，这些超时完成、成本超支的风险会使一向原本有利润的项目变成一项带来损失的投资。一件风险事件意味着它有可能引起各种极有可能发生的后果，且比原先最有可能发生的后果更有利或不利。这些风险程度能通过某种仿真模型来计算。抓住项目所有的潜在的风险，这很重要。In construction projects each of the three primary targets of