基于MICAPS3.1的中小流域降水与水文及风险精细化预报平台.docVIP

基于MICAPS3.1的中小流域降水与水文及风险精细化预报平台设计与开发 王俊超彭涛1,2王丽娟 （1.中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室湖北 武汉 430205中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室，北京100081湖北省气象服务中心 湖北 武汉 430205 摘要：中小流域降水与水文及风险精细化预报平台以MICAPS3.1系统作为集成平台，充分利用现代气象业务中新资料、新技术、新方法实况、估算以及预报等产品结合水文模型及水文实况在同一平台实现水文预报用户对最终产品进行交互分析，提高预报准确率和决策服务水平。首先介绍了系统的工作流程及实现策略，并对系统相关功能进行展示；其次对关键技术和研究方法进行了重点描述，并对使用的模型进行验证；最后以漳河水库为例，该平台开展的服务情况及效果来说明系统的可操作性和应用价值。在多省市气象局、水库、电站等部门正式推广应用。结果表明：该系统布局合理、移植性强、操作简单，具有应用价值和推广意义。S1 该文已被《干旱气象》2015年第四期录用 关键词：MICAPS3.1；系统框架；中小流域；水文气象 Design and Development of Elaborate Forecasting Platform about Precipitation and Hydrology Risk in Small and Medium Watershed Based on MICAPS3.1 WANG Junchao1, PENG Tao1,2, WANG Lijuan3 （1.Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research, Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan 430205, China; 2.State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China; 3.Hubei?Service?Center?of?Meteorological?Science?and?Technology, Wuhan 430205, China） Abstract: Based on the observed, simulated and forecasted meteorological products derived from new materials, new technology, new method of the modern meteorological operations, the forecasting platform of precipitation and hydrology risk in small and medium watershed was integrated with MICAPS3.1 system. Combined the observation of hydrology and forecasting models, the precipitation and hydrological parameters were elaborately forecasted and displayed on the same platform. This paper introduced the main function, the module design features and the main system interface conditions of MICAPS3.1, firstly. Secondly, the deficiencies of MICAPS3.1 were improved to meet the actual needs of small and medium watershed forecast and the elaborate forecasting platform in small and medium watershed was developed, and focused on the workflows and work contents of system, key technology and related algorithms. Finally, the system was applied to hydrology forecasts in ZhangHe reservo