阅读理解-第四十三篇天气预报的方法.doc

+第四十三篇Forecasting〔预报〕Methods〔方法〕 There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster chooses depends upon the experience of the forecaster,the amount of information available to the forecaster , the level of difficulty that the forecast situation presents , and the degree of accuracy〔精确〕 or confidence〔信任〕needed in the forecast. The first of these methods is the persistence〔持续〕method; the simplest way of producing a forecast.The persistence method assumes〔假定〕that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change. For example ,if it. is sunny and 87 degrees today ,the persistence method predicts〔预测〕that it will be sunny and 87 degrees tomorrow. If two inches of rain fell today ,the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow. However , if weather conditions change significantly（重要的）from day to day ,the persistence method usually breaks down and is not the best forecasting method to use. The trends（趋势）method involves determining the speed and direction of movement for fronts , high and low pressure（压力）centers , and areas of clouds and precipitation. Using this information ,the forecaster can predict where he or she expects those features（特征）to be at some future time. For example , if a storm system is l ,000 miles west of your location and moving to the east at 250 miles per day , using the trends method you would predict it to arrive in your area in 4 days. The trends method works well when systems continue to move at the same speed in the same direction for a long period of time. If they slow down , speed up , change intensity（强度）, or change direction ,the trends forecast will probably not work as well. The climatology（气候学）method is another simple way of producing a forecast. This method involves averaging weather statistics（统计）accumulated over many years to make the forecast. For example , if you were using the climatology method to predict the weather for New York City on July 4th, you wou