基于中尺度数值模式快速循环系统的强对流天气分类概率预报试验.docVIP

基于中尺度数值模式快速循环系统的强对流天气分类概率预报试验( 雷蕾 孙继松 王国荣 郭锐 LEI Lei SUN Jisong WANG Guorong GUO Rui 北京市气象台，北京，100089 Beijing Meteorological Observatory，Beijing 100089，China LEI Lei，SUN Jisong，WANG Guorong，GUO Rui.2011. An experiment study of the summer convective weather Categorical Probability Forecast based on the rapid updated cycle system for the Beijing area (BJ-RUC). Abstract About the convective weather analyzed and distinguished in the summer of Beijing area, there are some researches have done before by using the conventional sounding data of 54511 station, the special sounding data constructed by microwave radiometer data as well as the wind profile data and the model forecast sounding data of the rapid updated cycle assimilation and forecast system for Beijing area (BJ-RUC). Now in this article, we discuss the experiment study of convective weather probability forecast and the categorical (such as short-time convective rainstorm and the hailstorm) probability forecast in Beijing area based on BJ-RUC meso-scaled model. The model basic elements are used to calculate many different thermal and physical parameters and then some convective weather characteristic indicators are being used. In this study at least four experiments were compared and the best of them are used to analyze three typical convective weathers in the summer of 2009 and 2010 in Beijing area. The experiments show that the probability forecast of the summer convective weather can be achieved, and there are also some successes of the categorical probability forecast based on BJ-RUC in the Beijing area. Keywords Conventional Sounding，BJ-RUC，Model Sounding，convective weather，Categorical Probability Forecast 摘 要 在利用实况探空资料、微波辐射计和风廓线构建的特种探空资料对于北京地区强对流天气进行判别以及快速更新循环同化预报系统（BJ-RUC模式）探空资料可应用性分析的基础上，针对模式探空基本要素计算多种热力、动力、综合不稳定物理量，根据统计的强对流天气判别指标，计算模式格点上的强对流发生概率，并进一步针对冰雹（雷暴大风）和强对流短时暴雨天气下不同物理量的阈值范围，初步探索中尺度数值模式对于强对流天气分类预报的可能性。通过不同组合的预报方案进行的对比分析表明：利用北京地区中尺度数值模式快速循环系统（BJ-RUC）的格点探空资料进行强对流天气概率的预报是可以实现的，强对流天气的