浅谈SIR流行病模型的建立和发展.docVIP

浅谈SIR流行病模型的建立和发展 摘要： 应用传染病动力学模型可描述疾病发展变化的过程和传播规律，预测疾病发生的状态，评估各种控制措施的效果，为预防控制疾病提供决策依据。本文介绍传染病动力学的最基本模型――SIR模型。探讨SIR模型的发展进程和研究动向,并用SIR模型对SARS的传播进行模拟。 关键词：传染病；动力学模型；SIR模型 Abstract: The dynamics models of infectious diseases can be used to describe the spread characters of infectious diseases, predict the status of the infection and evaluate the efficacy of control strategies, which are useful tools in diseases control decision making. A brief introduction to the basic dynamics model SIR was made。Discusses the development of SIR models process and the trend ,and by using SIR model to simu