ECE450 – Software Engineering II the sequelece450–软件工程II 续集.pptVIP

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ECE450 – Software Engineering II the sequelece450–软件工程II 续集.ppt

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ECE450 - Software Engineering II ECE450 – Software Engineering II Today: Risk Risk What is risk? “The possibility of suffering loss” Not inherently bad Essential to progress! The challenge is to manage the amount of risk If you don’t activelyattack the risks... ...the risks will activelyattack you –Tom Gilb Risk Management General idea: Identify your project’s risks Assess their impact and likelihood Devise plans to mitigate or avert them Monitor the risks and their corresponding plans Risk Identification: Checklists(Boehm’s Top 10 Risks) Personnel shortfalls Staff with top talent Job matching Team building Key personnel agreements Cross training Unrealistic schedules and budgets Multisource estimation Incremental development Developing the wrong features Requirements analysis Prototyping Developing the wrong user interface Prototyping, user participation Gold-plating Cost-benefit analysis Designing to cost Continuing stream of requirements changes High change threshold Deferring changes to later increments Shortfalls in external components Benchmarks Inspections Shortfalls in external tasks Pre-award audits Award-fee contracts Real-time performance shortfalls Simulations Prototyping Straining computer science capabilities Technical analysis Cost-benefit analysis Prototyping Risk Identification:Fault Tree Analysis Risk Assessment Quantitative approach: For each risk, Risk Exposure: Risk Exposure (RE) = p(risk occurring) x loss Qualitative approach: Risk exposure matrix (example from NASA): Risk Reductionand Aversion Quantitative approach: For each mitigation action, Risk Reduction Leverage: RRL = (REbefore – REafter) / Cost of intervention Qualitative approach: Determine Risk Aversion options and a Risk Monitoring Plan: Risk Monitoring–Top 10 Risks Principles ofRisk Management Global Perspective View software in context of a larger system Forward Looking View Anticipate possible outcomes Identify uncertainty Manage resources accordingly Open Communicatio