艾滋病疗法的评价及疗效的预测.doc

艾滋病疗法的评价及疗效的预测 ———全国大学生数学建模竞赛题目 学生姓名：刘琰博（专升本051班） 指导老师：张国志 摘　要：目前控制爱滋病的主要手段就是尽量减少爱滋病毒（HIV）在人体内的数量，所以本文根据美国爱滋病医疗机构所给的两组数据（附件1和附件2），运用Excel及Matlab软件对其进行处理，分别拟合出CD4和HIV的浓度随时间变化的函数关系式和问题中所给4种疗法中CD4的变化图象，然后利用Logistic模型，稳定性模型，最大曲边面积模型及层次分析法可分别得到同时服用3种药物的病人的最佳治疗终止时间是167.4117周；在4种疗法中疗法三对30岁以下的患者效果最好，疗法四对30岁以上的患者效果最好；考虑4种疗法的费用后，疗法一是最经济的． 关键词：CD4细胞；HIV；最佳治疗时间；抑制率；相对增长率；对比图；预测 目　　录 1　问题的提出 …………………………………………………… 1 2　问题的解决 …………………………………………………… 2 2.1 问题的假设 ……………………………………………… 2 　2.2 符号说明 ………………………………………………… 2 　2.3 问题分析 ………………………………………………… 2 　2.4 模型的建立与求解 ……………………………………… 3 3　模型的评价与改进 …………………………………………… 8 　3.1 模型的评价 ……………………………………………… 8 　3.2 模型的改进 ……………………………………………… 9 参考文献 ………………………………………………………… 10 The Evaluation of The Therapy of AIDS and Prediction of Its Curative Effect ——The topic of china undergraduate mathematics contest in modeling Student：Liu Yan-bo (051) Instructor：Zhang Guo-zhi Abstract：Currently，the main means which controls AIDS is to decreas as much as possible the amount of HIV in the human body．So the article is relate to two sets of data from the AIDS medical treatment organization of the United States (accessory 1 and accessory 2)，then using the Excel and Matlab software to deal with them，and respectively get the function which responses a change about the density of CD4 ad HIV going along with time，and the picture on a change about 4 kinds of therapies in the problem．Then make use of Logistic model，stability model，the biggest area model of covering with the curve，and the method of analysis in layers can get the best treatment＇s terminate time for the patient who take 3 kinds of medicine at the same time is 167.4116 weeks；Among the 4 kinds of therapies，the third one is the best one for the patient under the age of 30 and the forth one is the best one for the patient over the age of 30；when considering the expenses of the 4 kinds of therapies，the first one is the most profitable． Key words