全文-台湾永续能源研究基金会.docVIP

台灣燃料電池熱電共生系統市場滲透 周桂蘭*,林育立,楊昌中 工業技術研究院綠能與環境研究所，台灣新竹 31040 摘 要 燃料電池熱電共生系統具有低污染和高效率的特性，歐美與日本先進國家投入相當人力與經費於熱電共生系統的商業化，顯見此系統未來將成為最具潛力的分散式電力系統選項。目前台灣將燃料電池熱電共生系統視為住商部門節能減碳的方案之一，在政府推動的旭昇方案中規劃2030年發展目標為總裝置容量0.1GW。建立燃料電池熱電共生系統的市場滲透，符合實務及理論經驗的S曲線考慮技術成本進步、電價及能源稅等情境下，2030年燃料電池熱電共生系統技術容量佈局，約落在0.1～0.18GW，全台住宅部門裝置戶數約在13.2萬～24.5萬戶，商業部門裝置家數約在345~639家，市場滲透率1.6%~2.9%。 文章編號： Abstract Europe, USA and Japan are devoted to commercialize the fuel cell combined heat and power with large manpower and budget because the benefit of low pollution and high energy effect from fuel cell combined heat and power. Therefore, fuel cell combined heat and power will be one of the most potential development decentralized electricity in the future. Taiwan regard the fuel cell combined heat and power as one of energy saving and carbon reduction strategies, and set up 0.1 GW installed capacity goal in 2030 to drive sunrise of green energy industry. The purpose of this study is to build a market penetration model for fuel cell combined heat and power of residential and commercial which base on hot water demand and consumer cost and benefit choice behavior. This model will be S shape which conforms to theory and practical experience, and suit to the advanced energy technology market deployment assessment for the initial commercializing. This study explores the cost conditions of entering market and the rich impact from external circumstance variation on the advanced energy technology. This study concludes that considering the technology cost progressing, the electricity price rising and energy tax imposed scenarios, the capacity deployment of fuel cell combined heat and power in 2030 in Taiwan will be on 0.1~0.18GW, and there will have 132 thousand～24.5345～639 commercial firms to install this device which market penetration will be 1.6%～2.9%. 1.前言 燃料電池熱電共生系統具有低污染和高效率的特性，歐美與日本先進國家投入相當人力與經費於熱電共生系統的商業化，顯見此系統未來將成為最具潛力的分散式電力系統的選項。根據 The Fredonia Group 估計，2009 年全球商用化燃料電池市場規模約為 6.7 億美元；2010 年全球燃料電池市場因主要國家 (美、英