当前国际金融危机的实质.ppt

当前国际金融危机的实质及其理论根源 汪祖杰 教授 南京审计学院 金融学院 院长 经济学博士 2008.10.15 讲题： 一、现实与解释 二、当前金融危机的实质 三、当前金融危机理论根源 四、结论、对策与制度变革 一、现实与解释 （一）金融危机的定义与影响 （1）金融危机的定义 ——比较权威的定义是由戈德斯密斯（1982）给出的 ，是全部或大部分金融指标——短期利率、资产（资产、证券、房地产、土地）价格、商业破产数和金融机构倒闭数——的急剧、短暂和超周期的恶化。其特征是基于预期资产价格下降而大量抛出不动产或长期金融资产，换成货币。 （2）金融危机的类型： 货币危机 (Currency Crises) ； 银行危机 (Banking Crises) ； 外债危机 (Foreign Debt Crises) ； 信用危机 (Credit Crises)。 （3）美国金融危机和国际金融危机 Ⅰ、美国金融危机： 次贷危机；投资银行全军覆没；信贷市场和股市危机；实质经济危机。 首先，次贷危机的3表现： 1）房市的持续下降 a）查封量剧增 More than 272,000 homes received at least one foreclosure-related notice in July 2008, up 55% from about 175,000 in July 2007 and up 8 percent from June. 1 in every 464 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing in July 2008. /ap/080814/foreclosure_rates.html?printer=1 Foreclosure b）二手房交易量大幅下降Nationwide, the median existing single family home price down 7.6% to $206,500 from $223,500 in the second quarter of 2007. c）新房销售下降 June 2007 – June 2008 d）房价下降From June 30, 2007 to June 30, 2008 Sacramento, Calif. -35.6% Cape Coral, Fla. -33.1% Riverside, Calif. -32.7%, Los Angeles, Calif. -29.6% Las Vegas, Nev. -23.6% Phoenix, AZ -22.5% 2）次贷的规模和坏帐 The value of U.S. subprime mortgages was estimated at $1.3 trillion as of March 2007 How severe is subprime mess? - Real estate - MSNBC.com (2008). Over 7.5 million subprime mortgages outstanding. FRB: Speech, Bernanke--The Subprime Mortgage Market--May 17, 2007 Approximately 16% of subprime loans with adjustable rate mortgages were 90-days delinquent or in foreclosure proceedings as of October 2007, roughly triple the rate of 2005. FRB: Speech--Bernanke, The Recent Financial Turmoil and its Economic and Policy Consequences--October 15, 2007 By January of 2008, the delinquency rate had risen to 21%. FRB: Speech--Bernanke, Financial Markets, the Economic Outlook, and Monetary Policy --January 10, 2008 什么是次级贷款? 正级贷款的条件 Credit score above 620 (credit scores are between 350 and 850 with a median in the U.S. of 678 an