ApplicationofPurchasingPowerParity.pptVIP

Application of Purchasing Power Parity A.衡量一個國家的幣值是否被 “高估”或“低估” B.衡量國民所得 C.預測長期的匯率走勢 Application of Purchasing Power Parity A.衡量一個國家的幣值是否被“高估”或“低估” Economist: the Hamburger Standard Australia Implied Exchange Rate by PPP Taiwan Implied Exchange Rate by PPP China Implied Exchange Rate by PPP Application of Purchasing Power Parity B.衡量國民所得 IMF: 世界經濟展望 2005年 中共GDP Per Capita 傳統方法 : 1461.6 U$ PPP(IMF): 6193.4 U$ 利用市場匯市將產值換算為美元: e.g. 若1美元=8元人民幣 4兆人民幣合5,000億美元 物價低的國家產值會被低估 利用以美元計價的“標準價格”去計算各國的GDP 假設蘋果的世界價格為0.75U$ Application of Purchasing Power Parity C.預測長期的匯率走勢 Expected Relative PPP * * -53% 8.28 RMB/$US 3.90 RMB/$US 9.9 RMB China -16% 32.9 NT/$US 27.6 NT/$US 70 NT Taiwan -40% 1.95 A$/$US 1.18 A$/$US 3.00 A$ Australia 2.54 $US U.S Percentage of Deviation Actual Exchange Implied Exchange Price of Big Mac Nations % of Deviation = 1.18 1.95 1 = -40 % A$ is undervalued by 40% = P P* 1.18 A$ / US$ = 1.18 A$ / Big Mac 2.54 US$ / Big Mac = E % of Deviation = 27.6 32.90 1 = -16 % NT is undervalued by 16 % = P P* 27.6 NT / US$ = 70 NT / Big Mac 2.54 US$ / Big Mac = E % of Deviation = 3.90 8.28 1 = -53 % RMB is undervalued by 53% = P P* 3.90 RMB / US$ = 9.9 RMB / Big Mac 2.59 US$ / Big Mac = E 4 RMB 1 US$ Price 1 APPLE 1 APPLE GDP China U.S e.g. Rate 1 US$ = 8 RMB (ie.中共之物價較低) U.S. GDP= 1 US$ China GDP=0.5US$ 0.75 0.75 GDP(US$) 1 APPLE 1 APPLE GDP China U.S 假設汽車的世界價格為20,000U$ 會高估產品品質差的國家之產值 20,000 20,000 GDP(US$) 1 CAR 1 CAR GDP China U.S = Pt Pt* Et Et Et+1 - Et e = Pt Pt+1 - Pt e = Pt+1 - Pt Pt *e * *