DouglasBiesecker.pptVIP

Douglas Biesecker NOAA/Space Environment Center Chair of Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel The Solar Cycle 24 Panel Charged with determining official prediction for Solar Cycle 24 for NOAA, NASA, and the International Space Environment Service (ISES) Panel chaired by NOAA, funded by NASA International membership The panel has 12 voting members Only 11 voted on these predictions The Panel is today releasing predictions for The impending solar minimum Marking onset of Cycle 24 The peak sunspot number expected for Cycle 24 The time of the peak sunspot number What follows is the consensus of the panel Solar Minimum March, 2008 (±6 months) Marks the end of Cycle 23 and start of Cycle 24 The length of Cycle 23 will then be 11.75 years Longer than the average of 11 years Cycle 24 Maximum Will peak at a sunspot number of 140(±20) in October, 2011 Or Will peak at a sunspot number of 90(±10) in August, 2012 An average solar cycle peaks at 114 The next cycle will be neither extreme, nor average But, the panel is split down the middle on whether it will be bigger than average or smaller than average The April 25 Prediction A few comments… Why the panel still disagrees… We’re still a long way from solar minimum What’s the main difference between the big (140) and small (90) predictions? Big – assume solar memory lasts 20-30 years Small – assume solar memory lasts 11 years There is still work to do… What would cause the big predictors to think small If solar minimum drags out beyond March, 2008 What would cause the small predictors to think big If either the magnetic field at the sun’s poles increases in strength or geomagnetic activity increases before March, 2008 Thus, consensus is expected… About March, 2008 The panel will re-evaluate conditions on the sun every 3 months The panel will update this prediction annually, or as things change. * Solar Maximum Cycle 22 Solar Minimum Solar Maximum Cycle 23 WHAT IS A SOLAR CYCLE? Solar activity rises and falls over an 11 year cycle