我国外商直接对就业数量的.doc

摘 要 随着我国改革开放的不断深化和经济全球化趋势的日益明显，我国吸引外商接投资的规模也在不断扩大。改革开放至今32年来，外商直接投资在推动中国经济增长方面扮演了关键性的角色。而就业是经济发展一个很重要的方面。FDI的大量流入，对我国的就业也做出了一定的贡献，但是随着越来越多的外商直接投资进入中国，其对我国的投资方式和投资的资本技术含量都在发生深刻的变化，相对应的，FDI对就业的影响也不断发生变化。因此，为了更好的认识FDI与我国就业之间的关系以及更好地促进其对我国就业的积极贡献，十分必要且有意义的。 近年来，关于FDI促进中国国内经济发展的研究报告层出不穷。但是这些研究中的大部分主要是围绕FDI对中国经济的积极推动作用进行阐述的，围绕外商直接投资与我国就业关系的文献相对较少，大部分研究集中在定性分析上，很少有定量分析。 本文根据现代计量经济学中的协整理论,利用1985—2008年的年度数据,对改革开放以来外商直接投资流入与我国就业增长之间的关系进行了实证研究，结果表明:FDI与就业数量之间存在着长期均衡关系。外商直接投资每增长1%,将带动我国就业增加0.095%。文章还利用误差修正模型,分析了外商直接投资与我国就业量之间的短期波动及其调整机制。 关键词: FDI; 协整理论; 就业; 实证分析  Abstract Accompanied by the deepness of China’s reform and opening up and the obvious trend of economic globalization, the total amount of foreign direct investment in China has been growing rapidly. FDI has played an indispensable role in promoting economic development of China. The employment is an important part of economic development. So the introduction of FDI also has a certain impact on the employment. As more and more FDI pours into China, its structure and the capital and technology composing are changing a lot. Such transformation has been doing more and more passive effects on employment. In order to understand the relationship between FDI and employment, it is necessary and significant to do some research on the influence of FDI to employment. At present, there have been a lot of researches about the relationship between FDI and economic development. But the subject on how the FDI making effect on employment has not been discussed enough. Many studies limited on the normal research. And a few uses empirical research. We did an empirical research on FDI and employment in China according to modern econometrics and the theory of co-integration, using 1985-2008 annual data, since the reform and opening up. We found that there was long-term equilibrium relationship between FDI and Chinese employment: in the long term, employment in China goes up by 0.095% as FDI increases 1%. We also used t