估算无储能太阳能在电力系统中替代常规电力的长期价值-Energy.pptVIP

Valuation and Integration of Solar Energy: 太阳能评价与并网Early Results from the United States美国初期研究成果 Ryan Wiser 怀瑞恩 Consultant to the Center for Resource Solutions 资源解答中心专家 Energy Foundation Workshop 能源基金会研讨会 Beijing, China July 2, 1010 Motivation 研究动机 Increasing focus on solar as source of electricity: Growth in interest in large-scale plants: 50 GW seeking interconnection in U.S., ~10 GW in later stages of development Decision-makers need to understand electric system value of solar electricity (PV/CSP, w/ and w/o storage): Solar is variable/unpredictable: valuation will differ from conventional gen. Output variability/uncertainty studied for wind; little similar work on solar Two areas of particular interest: Estimating the long-term electric system value of solar without storage given displacement in conventional gen. and optimal capacity expansion Understanding the technical and economic impacts of short-term variability and uncertainty in PV output, and associated integration costs Current presentation does not include power quality timeframe * 太阳能发电受到越来越多的关注 美国对大规模电站的兴趣在提升：预期的并网需求超过50GW，约10GW的项目处于开发的后期阶段 决策者需要认识到太阳能电力在电力系统中的价值（光伏/光热，有无储能） 太阳能具有波动性/不可预测性：其评价方法将有别于常规能源 针对风电出力变化/不确定性已有研究；太阳能这方面的研究却很少 两个主要研究方向： 估算无储能太阳能在电力系统中替代常规电力的长期价值，及最佳容量 了解光伏发电输出短期波动性和不确定性带来的技术和经济影响及并网成本 目前的报告并不包括瞬时电能质量 * Long Term Valuation长期价值 * Value of an Electricity Generation Source Impacted By Multiple Factors电源价值受多种因素影响 发电成本 输电成本 并网成本 容量价值 能源价值 * Central Solar in Western U.S. Currently 3 cents/kWh More Valuable Than Wind Considering Energy/Capacity Value考虑到能量/容量价值，美国西部集中式太阳能价值比风电高3美分/度 Increased value due to coincidence with system peak, and therefore offset of higher-cost resources; benefits likely to be lower in China 因与用电负荷高峰重合而增加了太阳能电力的价值，所以抵消了部分高成本；在中国，这方面的价值可能要低一些 * Marginal Value of Solar Energy Drops with Penetration, But At Current Levels, Added Value Is Considerable随着在总体电源中比重的增加，太阳能的边际价值会减少，但在目前的水平下，增值仍相当可观 Renewable Penetration (% energy basis) 可再生能源比重（发电量） Solar red