江苏省农业可持续发展和区域差异性研究.docVIP

江苏省农业可持续发展和区域差异性研究 　　摘要 农业可持续发展是可持续发展的重要内容，是人类社会和经济可持续发展的基础。为深入了解江苏省农业可持续发展状况，该文利用相关统计资料，从农业生产、农业经济、农村社会以及农业资源与环境4个层面选取31项指标构建农业可持续评价指标体系，运用主成分分析法、因子分析法以及聚类分析方法对江苏省2000―2012年农业可持续发展状况进行评价分析，同时对各县市的农业可持续发展水平进行区域差异性分析。结果表明：虽然农业可持续发发展水平逐年提升，总体发展水平比较高，但区域间的农业可持续发展水平存在明显差异性，在空间分布上表现为由北向南逐渐降低的趋势，并划分成3区域：一是集中在北部区域的农业可持续发展优势区县市，农业可持续发展水平高，但子系统发展不均衡；二是以中部沿江和沿海为典型的县市，农业可持续发展水平居中，但子系统发展较均衡；三是以苏南地区县市为典型的农业可持续发展劣势区。通过对影响区域农业可持续发展的限制性因素进行分析，提出了针对不同区域的农业可持续发展策略。 　　关键词 农业可持续发展；指标体系；主成分；因子分析；聚类分析；区域差异性；江苏省 　　中图分类号 F323 文献标识码 A 文章编号 1007-5739（2016）13-0315-04 　　Abstract The sustainable development of Agriculture is one of the most parts of the sustainable development，also the base of the development of mankind society and economic. To better understand and evaluate the state of agriculture sustainable development in Jiangsu Province，the evaluation index system was build which contained 31 indicators selected from four aspects including agricultural production agricultural economic，social sustainability of rural and the agricultural resources and environment according to the features of Jiangsu agricultural development. Then，principal component analysis and factor analysis were used to analyze and evaluate the level of the sustainable development of agriculture in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2012 and the regional differences among 48 counties based on the relevant statistical datas.For further evaluation，the way of cluster analysis was also used to classify the results of the factor analysis.The results showed that the spatial differences of the present level of agricultural sustainable development in Jiangsu Province among those counties were obvious and the level of agricultural sustainable development of counties in the spatial distribution appeared gradually reduced from north to south. In general，there were three classes according the classified results：the first class represented those dominant counties on agricultural sustainable development located in the north of Jia