ImpactAssessment-MobileVCE.pptVIP

Wireless in China Today From Little Red Book to Little Red Phone Stephen Hope Orange Labs Contents The Chinese Telecom Service Market 3G – What, How Much and When? The 2008 Olympics Technology Neutrality Mobile TV WiMax Impact Assessment Conclusion China: Telecom Service Market China: Mobile Market (As at Mar 2007 [source MII]. Figures in brackets 2004 figures at first mission) A Changing but still Growing Market China Mobile had 45% of total telecom service revenue ($85Bn) in 2006. Q1 07 19.5% Revenue Growth for China Mobile vs 4.2 % China Unicom Growing mobile-fixed substitution impacting on China Telecom and China Netcom the Fixed Operators Revenue Growth 2.2% and 0.2% respectively Currently 91(50 in 2004)m PHS Subscriber base operated as Fixed Line Wireless extensions by China Telecom and China Netcom predicted to shrink to 3m by 2011 as Mobile Operators have aggressively implemented CPP (Calling Party Pays). Capital Investment reduced in preparation for Broadband and new 3G licences The previous model of both Called and Calling Party Pays – the norm in 2004 – was the key reason for the growth of the PHS market. A Changing but still Growing Market The number of CDMA subscribers remained static in 2006 China Unicom likely to spin off its CDMA assets and sell them to China Telecom in 2008 Net Subscriber additions still at 5 to 6 million per month - 80% China Mobile – 50% Rural Increasing Rural Market Penetration through low cost handsets is key for subscriber growth 3G – What, How Much and WhenThe Waiting Game In 2004 3G Award of Licences was widely expected within the next year……. Speculation was that China Mobile would receive W-CDMA, China Unicom CDMA-2000 and China Telecom a TD-SCDMA Licence. In 2007 3G Licences ... still awaited… A deliberate government strategy to encourage the development of Chinese IPR? An expected Leadership reshuffle may further delay licence awards until 2008 Large scale trials in all the 3 technologies. The rise