MISLEADING STATISTICS Suffolk Maths误导的统计萨福克数学.pptVIP

MISLEADING STATISTICS Twisting information to your advantage… Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write. – H.G. Wells Indeed, statistics may be one of our most effective and efficient vehicles for communicating information. It is the natural inclination of people to trust numbers over words, and statistics present numbers in an attractive format that even the most innumerate man can follow. In addition, statistics can be presented in a wide variety of forms, from line graphs to tables to pie charts. Each performs its own unique function and offers information from a new perspective. Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write. – H.G. Wells Yet with every benefit comes a setback. Many people do not realize that numbers in a graph can be easily manipulated to reflect the author’s own wishes. The problem with graphs is that even with missing information, incomplete figures, and vague captions, they can still be presented with reasonable realism. People have grown so accustomed to seeing graphs that they accept its information unquestionably. Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write. – H.G. Wells In the following presentation, we will show you two such misleading graphs, point out their errors, and attempt to recreate the same graph using more accurate forms of presentation. You will see how the same set of information can produce two completely different graphs, and learn about the many ways in which statistics can deceive you. * * First of all, there is the title to consider. While retail sales do go down in April 2002, the title doesn’t accurately reflect what the rest of the graph shows. Yes, the sales do rise and fall over a period of a year and a half, but in general, they have been steadily rising since November 1998. This graph is misleading