Prediction of Oil Production With Confidence Intervals置信区间预测石油产量.pptVIP

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Prediction of Oil Production With Confidence Intervals置信区间预测石油产量.ppt

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Prediction of Oil Production With Confidence Intervals置信区间预测石油产量

Prediction of Oil Production With Confidence Intervals* James Glimm1,2, Shuling Hou3, Yoon-ha Lee1, David H. Sharp3, Kenny Ye1 1. SUNY at Stony Brook 2. Brookhaven National Laboratory 3. Los Alamos National Laboratory Application of Prediction Theory Reservoir Development Choices, for example Sizing of Production Equipment Location of Infill Drilling During Early Development Stages Risk high Payoff high Basic Idea: I History match with probability of error Start with geostatistical probability model for permeability, etc. Observe production rates, etc. Basic Idea: II Multiple simulations from ensemble (Re)Assign probabilities based on data, degree of mismatch of simulation to history Basic Idea: III Basic Idea: IV New Idea: Arrival Time Error Models Formulate solution error model in terms of arrival times, rather than solution values errors are equi-distributed relative to solution gradients, ie relative to changes in solution values: Arrival Time Model is Simple, Robust Illustration:Posterior reduces choices and uncertainty New Result: Problem Formulation Simple Reservoir Description Ensemble Upscaling Examples of Upscaled, Exact Oil Cut Curves Bayes Theorem Errors and Discrepancies Example Model Reduction: Confidence Intervals Arrival Time Error Analysis Covariance Matrix: 10x10 Scaleup Confidence intervals for arrival time error model (%) Arrival time error model vs. solution value model: confidence intervals (%) for s = 0.6 and 10x10 scaleup Summary and Conclusions New method to assess risk in prediction of future oil production New methods to assess errors in simulations as probabilities New upscaling allows consideration of ensemble of geology scenarios Bayesian framework provides formal probabilities for risk and uncertainty References J. Glimm, S. Hou, H. Kim, D. H. Sharp, “A Probability Model for Errors in the Numerical Solutions of a Partial Differential Equation”. Computational Fluid Dynamics Journal, Vol. 9, 485-493 (2001). J. Glimm, S