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Recovery Oriented Computing University of California 恢复性计算加利福尼亚大学
A Simple Way to Estimate the Cost of Downtime Dave Patterson EECS Department University of California, Berkeley /projects/downtime November 2002 Motivation Our perspective: Dependability and Cost of Ownership are the upcoming challenges Past challenges: Performance and Cost of Purchase Ideal: compare (purchase cost + outage cost) But companies claim most customers won’t pay much more for more dependable products 1. How do you measure product availability? 2. How much money would greater availability save? Researchers are starting to benchmark dependability: commonplace in 2 to 4 years? Predict hours of downtime per year per product If customers cannot easily estimate downtime costs, who will pay more for dependability? outage cost = downtime hours X cost/hour of downtime 2000 “Downtime Costs” (per Hour) Brokerage operations $6,450,000 Credit card authorization $2,600,000 Ebay (1 outage 22 hours) $225,000 A $180,000 Package shipping services $150,000 Home shopping channel $113,000 Catalog sales center $90,000 Airline reservation center $89,000 Cellular service activation $41,000 On-line network fees $25,000 ATM service fees $14,000 One Approach 1. Estimate on-line income lost during outages (Online Income / quarter divided by hours / quarter) X hours of downtime Lost off-line sales? Employee productivity? 2. Interview employees after an outage, ask how many were idled by the outage, and calculate their salaries and benefits How many employees would answer (honestly)? (Big Brother data collection?) How many companies would spend the money to collect this information? But want CIO, system administrator to easily estimate costs to evaluate future purchases A Simple Estimate Estimated Average Cost of hour of downtime = Employee Costs per Hour * Fraction Employees Affected by Outage + Average Revenue per Hour * Fraction RevenueAffected by Outage Employee Costs per Hour: total salaries and benefits of employees per week divided by the average number of working
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