Theory and Estimation in the Economics of Housing Demand住房需求经济学的理论与方法.pptVIP

Theory and Estimation in the Economics of Housing Demand By Stephen K. Mayo From Journal of Urban Economics, 1981, p95-116 Presented by Yong Li December.4, 2002 Introduction and Purpose A review of theoretical and empirical developments made prior to 1980 on the subject of housing demand. Four main topics: Income elasticity of demand for housing Price elasticity of demand for housing Demographic variation in housing demand Dynamic aspects of housing demand Basic Model A log-linear demand equation: lnH = a + blny + clnpH , Where H is housing; y is income; pH is the relative price of housing a, b and c are parameters Income Elasticity Key issues: How sensitive is demand to changes in income? Empirical work uses current income rather than an appropriate measure of permanent, or expected income, to estimate the model. As a result, to what degree are the estimates of elasticity likely to be biased? The Bias Current income elasticity will be biased downward in proportion to the ratio of variances of permanent income to current income asymptotic E(陏) = eyVy Where Vy=Var(yp)/Var(y)=Var(yp)/[Var(yp)+Var(yt))]1 yp is permanent income; yt is transitory income The Bias The smaller the variance of transitory income, the smaller the bias of estimated current income elasticity. Efforts made to deal with the problem of estimating permanent income elasticity. Grouping Averaging IV Some Discussions ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Grouped by SMSA 0.52 0.38 1969 FHA Polinsky/Elwood 1.A.11 ; 1.B.20 Grouped by income class 0.68 0.51 1971 CSL Smith/Campbell 1.A.13 ; 1.B.22b Grouped randomly 0.59 0.51 1971 CSL Smith/Campbell 1.A.13 ; 1.B.22a Grouped randomly 0.36 0.24 1970 C-Eu Nelson 1.A.10 ; 1.B.19a Grouped by housing value 1.12 0.51 1971 CSL Smith/Campbell 1.A.13 ; 1.B.22c Grouped by census tracts 1.16 0.24 1970 C-Eu Nelson