pathsofairpollutionduetoenergy.docVIP

PATHS OF AIR POLLUTION DUE TO ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN FINLAND 1970-2000 OSMO FORSSELL AND ILMO M?ENP?? Emeritusprofessor Osmo Forssell Faculty of Economics and Industrial Management, Box 4600 FIN-90014 OULUN YLIPISTO FINLAND E-mail: osmo.forssell@oulu.fi DR. Ilmo M?enp?? The Thule Institute, Box 7300 FIN-90014 OULUN YLIPISTO FINLAND E-mail: ilmo.maenpaa@oulu.fi Paper submitted for the 14th International Conference on Input-Output Techniques to be held at University of Quebec, Montreal, Canada Oct 10-15, 2002 PATHS OF AIR POLLUTION DUE TO ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN FINLAND 1970-2000 OSMO FORSSELL AND ILMO M?ENP?? Abstract We analyse emissions of carbon dioxide and acidic emissions due to energy consumption and its changes in the Finnish economy during the period 1970-2000. Changes are calculated by industry, by energy type, and by air pollutant, and they are broke down according to energy efficiency, pollutant intensity of energy, other technological change, structure of final demand and its level. Input-output structural decomposition analysis is used in order to find these sources of emissions. Annual open input-output models based on the 1995 input-output model are evaluated for the years 1970-2000. This evaluation used time series of National Accounts for output and value added by industry, consumption expenditures, and capital formation and different series for exports and imports by industry. Annual change for energy consumption and air pollution is then calculated with a decomposition approach using an average of two estimates: one in prices of the initial year and the other in prices in the terminal year. The weights in the decomposition equations are then the polar forms. Annual changes are finally associated in order to get time paths for different decomposition sources. 1. Introduction Changes in the Finnish gross domestic product at costant market prices from 1961 to 2001 gives a good background for analysis.