管理学第4章决策0315题库.ppt

程序化决策 政策 为重复问题制定决策而设定参数的一个普遍的指导 程序 能用于处理结构性问题的相互关联的一系列步骤 规则 告诉管理者应该做什么不应该做什么的一种清晰的描述描述 问题类型、决策类型和组织层次 程序化决策 非程序化决策 管理者要面对的决策情境 确定性 由于各种备选方案的预期结果可知，因而决策者能够做出准确的决策的情境 不确定性 决策者不确定甚至无法读可能产生的结果做出合理的概率估计时的情境 风险 决策者能够对可能产生的结果估计概率的情境 群体决策 优点 群体决策提供更多完整的信息 经验和观点的多元性更高 群体可以形成更多备选方案 群体决策增加了方案的可接受性 缺点 群体决策耗费时间 受少数人主导 群体的服从压力 责任模糊 服从于破坏批判性思维的群体思维 何时群体决策最为有效 群体决策有效性的标准 准确性 速度 创造性 可接受程度 理想的群体规模 5-15人 如何改进群体决策的质量 头脑风暴法 鼓励提出备选方案同时禁止批评的一个创意形成过程 名义群体方法 群体成员必须出席但是要求独立行事的一种决策制定技术 电子会议 参加者通过电脑连接 当代管理者要面对的决策问题 禀议制 日本的共识形成群体决策 创造力 提出新颖且有用的思想的能力 本讲结束！ kent513@163.com The decision-making process begins with the identification of a problem (step 1) or, more specifically, a discrepancy between an existing and a desired state of affairs. Once a manager has identified a problem that needs attention, the decision criteria that will be important in solving the problem must be identified (step 2). * It’s necessary, therefore, to allocate weights to the items listed in step 2 in order to give them their relative priority in the decision (step 3). Then the decision maker lists the alternatives that could succeed in resolving the problem (step 4). Once the alternatives have been identified, the decision maker must critically analyze each one (step 5). * We assume that managers’ decision making will be rational; that is, they’ll make logical and consistent choices to maximize value. After all, managers have all sorts of tools and techniques to help them be rational decision makers A rational decision maker would be fully objective and logical. The problem faced would be clear and unambiguous, and the decision maker would have a clear and specific goal and know all possible alternatives and consequences. Finally, making decisions rationally would consistently lead to selecting the alternative that maximizes the likelihood of achieving that goal * A more realistic approach to describing how managers make decisions is the concept of bounded rationality, which says that managers make decis