贵州省城镇居民消费性支出的多元回归分析.pdfVIP

摘要 近年来，美欧等中国主要出口市场的经济持续萎靡不振，外需低迷已成定局。在这一 背景下，如何扩大内需，保持经济平稳增长，成为摆在中国面前的一大挑战。国家统计局 的数据显示，2012年，我国消费结构升级不断加速，成为拉动中国经济增长的第一引擎。 扩大消费需求，是加快转变经济发展方式的客观要求。本文通过分析2000年至2011年的相关 数据，以贵州省城镇居民消费性支出为因变量，运用EViews软件分析影响城镇居民消费性 支出的各种因素，设定一个贵州省城镇居民消费性支出对人均可支配性收入、在岗职工平 均工资、城镇居民家庭就业人口、消费品价格指数的理论多元回归模型，再估计参数、模 型修正、模型检验以及 归预测，最后得出结论。从最后的模型结果中可以为贵州经济增长 提供有利的参考，从而提高贵州人民生活水平和质量。 关键词：内需，消费性支出，多元回归模型 Abstract In recent years, Chinas major export markets such as the U.S. and Europe continued economic malaise, sluggish external demand is a foregone conclusion. In this context, how to expand domestic demand and maintain steady economic growth, before China becomes a major challenge. National Bureau of Statistics data show that in 2012, Chinas consumption structure upgrading accelerating, becoming Chinas economic growth in the first engine.Expand consumer demand, is to accelerate the transformation of economic development objective requirements.By analyzing data from 2000 to 2011, the urban residents in Guizhou Province consumer spending as the dependent variable, A consumption of urban residents in Guizhou provincespending is set to theory of disposable income, average wages of staff and workers, urban residents household employment, consumer price index regression models,and parameter estimation, model updating, model test and regression prediction, finally draw a conclusion. From the result of the model in the last can provide favorable reference for the economic growth of Guizhou in Guizhou,so as to improve the level and quality of peoples life. Keywords ：Domestic demand, consumer spending, multiple regression model I 目录 摘要I AbstractII 1.绪论1 2.准备工作1 2.1 原始数据1 2.2 建立工作文件2 2.3 输入数据3 2.4 作线性图3 3.参数估计4 4.模型修正5 4.1 多重共线性检验5 4.2 修正多重共线性5 4.3 序列相关检验10 4.4 异方差检验11 5.模型检验12 6.回归预测12 7.结论13 参