影響居民消费水平因素的定性定量分析.doc

影响居民消费水平因素的定性定量分析 摘要:改革开放以来,中国经济始终保持着高速增长,居民的消费水平也逐步攀升.消费作为经济增长的三驾马车之一在国民经济中具有举足轻重的地位,关注消费可以更好的制定经济政策,促进国民经济又好又快发展.中央“十二五“规划公报中,消费被提到了前所未有的高度,因此研究居民消费问题对我国的经济发展具有重大意义. 本文通过数据分析影响居民消费水平的因素,确定要研究的对象包括国民总收入,城镇农村居民总收入及恩格尔系数,通胀率,人口自然增长率.先进行影响居民消费水平的单因素分析,对拟合程度较差的剔除,在此基础上,将所有对居民消费水平影响显著的变量放进同一模型,进行多元回归分析.最后,通过分析得出模型意义,对提高居民消费水平提出合理化建议. 关键词：多元回归分析,检验,居民消费,国民收入,恩格尔系数,人口自然增长率,通胀率,定性定量分析 Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis of Factors Influencing the Consumption Abstract: Since reform and opening up, Chinas economy has always maintained a high growth, residents consumption levels have been rising gradually. Consumption growth as one of the troika has a pivotal position in the national economy, focusing on consumption can better develop economic policies, promoting sound and rapid development of the national economy. The central twelve-five planning bulletin, consumption has been referred to an unprecedented height, so the study of consumer problems on Chinas economic development is of great significance. This article analyses the factors influencing the consumption level, and regards national income, total income of rural residents in cities and towns , Engels coefficient, the rate of inflation and the natural population growth rate as studying factors. At first, using Single Factor Analysis to analyze the problem, getting rid of the worse fitting result, on this basis, putting all significant factors in the same model, then ,beginning Multiple Regression Analysis. Finally, getting model of meaning through the analysis and raising reasonable proposals to increase the level of consumption of households. Key words: Multiple Regression Analysis; test; national income; total income of rural residents; Engels coefficient; rate of inflation ; natural population growth rate; qualitative and quantitative analysis 1.背景概述： 长期以来,我国的居民消费增长始终滞后于经济增长,居民消费增长滞后不仅不利于提升我国居民生活水平而且对我国的经济发展方式有着不利影响.近些年来国内外学者对影响居民消费的因素研究很多,大部分都是从国家政策方面进行讨论,主要集中在以下方面[1]: 一、消费断层影响整