太阳能组合功率预测讲述.docVIP

上海电力学院 本科毕业设计（论文） 题 目： 太阳能组合功率预测 院 部： 电气工程学院 专业年级： 电力工程与管理2015届 学生姓名： 陈骏 学号： 指导教师： 李芬 2015年5月11日 【摘要】 太阳能光伏发电作为一种绿色可再生新能源，是常规能源化石能源等不可再生能源的有效替代品。光伏发电系统的输出功率预测对保持电力系统的功率平衡和经济运行有重要意义。利用光伏发电有以下的一些优点：1、结构简单，体积小。2、运输安装方便且建设周期短。3、使用方便维护简单。4、无噪声，清洁安全。5、适用范围广泛，可靠性高寿命长。但是，光伏发电系统发电量受到太阳辐射强度，温度，大气参数和一些随机因素的影响，根据气象条件可对太阳能发电量进行预测分析，对并网系统的调度和负荷分配十分重要。本文介绍了光伏发电功率的几种预测方法，分析了太阳能水平面总辐射量、气温、日照时数和相对湿度等各种气象因素对光伏发电量的影响。建立了三种发电量预测模型，并在比较分析的基础上建立基于IOWA算子的组合功率预测模型，并对该模型的预测效果进行评价，结果表明该模型可提高预测精度。 关键词：光伏发电；功率预测；组合模型； 【Abstract】 As a new renewable energy, solar energy generation is a kind of effective alternative to fossil energy and other non renewable energy.. The output power forecast of photovoltaic power generation system is significant for maintaining the power balance and economic operation of power system.. Use of photovoltaic power generation has some of the following advantages: 1, simple structure, small size. 2, transportation and installation convenient and short construction cycle. 3, easy to use maintenance simple. 4, no noise, clean security. 5, wide application range, high reliability and long life. However, photovoltaic power system generation by solar radiation intensity, temperature, the influence of atmospheric parameters and random factors, according to meteorological conditions can be used to analyze and predict the amount of solar power, on the grid system scheduling and load distribution is very important. This paper introduces several photovoltaic power prediction method, analysis of the impact of photovoltaic power generation solar total radiation, temperature, sunshine time and relative humidity various meteorological factors. Established three generating capacity prediction model, and on the basis of comparison and analysis of the establishment of prediction model based on the power of the combination of Iowa operator, and the predictive effect of the model evaluation results show that the