论文-供应中“牛鞭”效应的产生及其解决办法.doc

东北财经大学自学考试本科毕业论文 供应链中“牛鞭”效应的产生及其解决办法 作 者＿ ＿ 专 业＿ 总 考 号＿ 指导老师＿＿＿ 答辩日期＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿ 成 绩＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿ 内容提要 作为21世纪增强企业竞争力最主要的管理思想和方法之一，供应链管理目前已经受到了国内外学术界与企业界的普遍重视。供应链管理是将供应商、制造商、分销商、零售商等主体集成为一个网路，对这些具有不同目标主体之间的行为活动进行计划、协调、操作、控制和优化，使企业能够以最低的成本在准确的时间（Right Time）和准确的地点（Right Place）准确的产品（Right Product）送到客户手中。它不仅是一条物流链、资迅链和价值链，而是一条增值链。随着市场全球化和竞争的加剧，企业之间的竞争已变成供应链之间的竞争，所以，如何提高整条供应链的增值能力，增强供应链的竞争力，成为各节点企业共同的目标，但是“牛鞭”效应的存在削弱了供应链的增值能力和竞争力。所以，企业之间必须协同合作，共同消除“牛鞭”效应，达到群体共存。 本文从需求预测修正、价格波动、订货批量、短缺博弈、库存失衡、环境变异等方面分析“牛鞭”效应的产生原因，帮助企业制定有效的策略来减少它的消极影响。 关键词：供应链 供应链管理 牛鞭效应 Abstract In nowadays 21st century, as one of the major ideas and methods of management, Supply Chain Management has been universally valued in the scholarship world and in the circle of enterprises at home and abroad. Supply Chain Management concerns the connection of suppliers. Manufactures and retailers into a network, has between the different point-body to these the behavior activity to carry on the plan, the coordination, the operation, the control and the optimization, enables the Right Time and the Right Place the Right Product ,delivers in the customer hand by the lowest cost in the accurate time. Supply Chain Management is a Logistics Chain, an Information Chain and a Value Chain. Moreover, it is a Value Increase Chain, with the globalization of markets and the hardening of Competition, Competition between enterprises has become Competitions between Supply Chains. So, how to strengthen value increase and Competition of Supply Chain has become the common goal of all the enterprises concerned. However, bull-whip effect reduces the strength. So, all enterprises should cooperate to eliminate in order to survive together. This paper makes an analysis of the cause of bull-whip effect in terms of correction of demand predictions, price fluefuation, order amount, shortage problem, stock inquilinous, environment variation, etc, and intends to help enterprises to d