Ch6 Decision Making.pptVIP

Ch5 Decision Making: The Essence of the Manager’s Job 彼得?德鲁克（Peter Druker）：“这个世纪最重要的事情不是技术或网络的革新，而是人类生存状况的重大改变。在这个世纪里，人将拥有更多的选择，他们必须积极地管理自己。” 巴菲特：“投资并不只是一个关于智商的游戏，如果你的智商超过了150，那么你可以把其中的30卖给别人，因为你并不需要过高的智商，过高的智商在某些时候会对你造成伤害。但是你同时需要足够的情商和判断力，因为你会听到各种不同的建议，你需要从中筛选，最终作出自己的决定。” 1.Outline the steps in the decision-making process. 2.Describe three different decision maker. 3.Identify the two types of decision problems and the two types of decisions that are used to solve them. 4. Differentiate the decision conditions of certainty, risk, and uncertainty. 5.1 The Decision-making Process – all organizational members make decisions what is a Decision A choice from two or more alternatives Decision-Making Process: – Step 1 - Identifying a Problem problem: - discrepancy between an existing and a desired state of affairs - the pressure to act - resources necessary to act. Step 2 - Identifying Decision Criteria decision criteria - what’s relevant in making a decision Step 3 - Allocating Weights to the Criteria Step 4 - Developing Alternatives list the viable alternatives that could resolve the problem without evaluating them Step 5 - Analyzing Alternatives each alternative is evaluated against the criteria Step 6 - Selecting an Alternative choosing the best alternative from among those considered Step 7 - Implementing the Alternative implementation - conveying the decision to those affected by it and getting their commitment to it Step 8 - Evaluating Decision Effectiveness 5．2 The Manager As Decision Maker Rationality, bounded rationality, and intuition Rational Decision Making – decisions are consistent, value-maximizing choices within specified constraints managers assumed to make rational decisions – Assumptions of Rationality – The problem is clear and unambiguous A single and specific goal All alternatives and consequences are know Preferences are clear. Preferences are constant and stable No time or cost constraint