〈畅销书〉思维与决策{精品}.pdf

This page intentionally left blank Thinking and Deciding, Fourth Edition Beginning with its first edition and through three subsequent editions, Thinking and Deciding has established itself as the required text and important reference work for students and scholars of human cognition and rationality. In this, the fourth edition, Jonathan Baron retains the comprehensive attention to the key questions addressed in the previous editions — How should we think? What, if anything, keeps us from thinking that way? How can we improve our thinking and decision making? — and his expanded treatment of topics such as risk, utilitarianism, Bayes’s theorem, and moral thinking. With the student in mind, the fourth edition emphasizes the devel- opment of an understanding of the fundamental concepts in judgment and decision making. This book is essential reading for students and scholars in judgment and decision making and related fields, including psychology, economics, law, medicine, and business. Jonathan Baron is Professor of Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. He is the author and editor of several other books, most recently Against Bioethics . Cur- rently he is editor of the journal Judgment and Decision Making and president of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making (2007). Thinking and Deciding Fourth Edition Jonathan Baron University of Pennsylvania CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo Cambridge University Press The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 8RU, UK Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York Information on this title: /9780521862073 © Cambridge University Press 1988, 1994, 2000, 2008 This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provision of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permiss