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Estimation of trajectory data
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dAccident Analysis and Prevention 42 (2010) 1888–1893
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Accident Analysis and Prevention
journa l homepage: www.e lsev ier .com/ locate /aap
stimation of rear-end crash potential using vehicle trajectory data
heol Oh ?, Taejin Kim1
epartment of Transportation Systems Engineering, Hanyang University at Ansan, Sa1-dong, Sangnok-gu, Ansan-city, Kyunggi-do 426-791, Republic of Korea
r t i c l e i n f o
rticle history:
eceived 10 February 2010
eceived in revised form 5 April 2010
ccepted 11 May 2010
eywords:
ear-end crash
a b s t r a c t
Recent advancement in traffic surveillance systems has allowed for obtaining more detailed vehicular
movement such as individual vehicle trajectory data. Understanding the characteristics of interactions
between leading vehicle and following in the traffic flow stream is a backbone for designing and eval-
uating more sophisticated traffic and vehicle control strategies. This study proposes a methodology for
estimating rear-end crash potential, as a probabilistic measure, in real time based on the analysis of
vehicular movements. The methodology presented in this study consists of two components. The firstehicle trajectory
ane-changing model
ime-to-collision
inary logistic regression model
xponential decay function
estimates the probability that a vehicle’s trajectory belonging to either ‘changing lane’ or ‘going straight’.
A binary logistic regression (BLR) is used to model the lane-changing decision of the subject vehicle.
The other component derives crash probability by an exponential decay function using time-to-collision
(TTC) between the subject vehicle and the front vehicle. Also, an aggregated measure, crash risk index
(CRI) is used in the analysis to accumulate rear-end crash potential for each subject vehicle. The result
of this study can be used in developing traffic control and information systems, in particular, for
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