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Quantification of effects of climate variations and human activities
Quantification of effects of climate variations and human activities
on runoff by a monthly water balance model: A case study of the
Chaobai River basin in northern China
Gangsheng Wang,1,2 Jun Xia,1,3 and Ji Chen4
Received 15 December 2007; revised 23 September 2008; accepted 14 October 2008; published 7 January 2009.
[1] The Chaobai River basin in northern China consists of two major tributaries, the Chao
River and Bai River. Monthly observations of precipitation, streamflow, and
panevaporation data are available for 35 years (1961–1966 and 1973–2001). Using the
annual time series of the observed streamflow, one break point at 1979 is detected and
is adopted to divide the data set into two study periods, the ‘‘before’’ and ‘‘after’’ periods
marking the onset of significant anthropogenic alteration of the flow (reservoirs and
silt retention dams, five times increase in population) and significant changes in land use
(conversion to terraced fields versus sloping fields). The distributed time-variant gain
model (DTVGM) was used to evaluate the water resources of the area. Furthermore, the
Bayesian method used by Engeland et al. (2005) was used in this paper to evaluate two
uncertainty sources (i.e., the model parameter and model structure) and for assessing
the DTVGM’s performance over the Chaobai River basin. Comparing the annual
precipitation means over 13 years (1961–1966 and 1973–1979), the means of the second
period (1980–2001) decreased by 5.4% and 4.9% in the Chao River and Bai River basins,
respectively. However, the related annual runoff decreased by 40.3% and 52.8%,
respectively, a much greater decline than exhibited by precipitation. Through the monthly
model simulation and the fixing-changing method, it is determined that decreases in runoff
between the two periods can be attributed to 35% (31%) from climate variations and
68% (70%) from human activities in the Chao River (Bai River). Thus, human impact
exerts a dominant influence upon runoff decline in t
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