2013年国际数学建模C题例.pdf

The Earth Call for Isaiah: the Ecosystem Dynamic Network Team # 23578 February 11, 2013 Summary The Earth Call for Isaiah: the Ecosystem Dynamic Network February 11, 2013 It is known to all that the earth is the carrier of human civilization, as well as the home- land for mankind and all the other living beings. But with the overload and overuse for years, it does not present a healthy ecological system. The article establishes a dynamic global network model so as to improve weaknesses concerning the multiple interaction- s, feedback loops, emergent behaviors, and predictive ability in previous studies. We first achieve a comprehensive understanding of the factors that influence the plan- etary ecosystem, determine the major factors as the primary data for the model with reference to the research findings of authoritative organizations, and interpolate and standardize the data. Then, to avoid the dimensional and data crisis resulting from complex factors in previous studies, bio-diversity a living index, which has to do with all living organisms, is chosen to evaluate the planetary health condition. A dynamic global network model is established by taking three chief habitats terrene, freshwater and the marine are selected as nodes, bio-diversity as the dynamic property, the cross- effects upon each other as the dynamic link. With historic-based data, we add the feed- back factors and uncertainties to the discretized influence relation equation to derive the dynamic data series which could predict the future trend. The model is verified by comparing real data and predicted data, showing high accuracy for short and medium range prediction. Predicted data undergoes a similarity analysis with those of ecologi- cal state change to see whether the former have reached the tipping point. Data are collected to test model sensitivity. We fluctuate at different times the param- eters within a narrow range to assess the volatility of the final results in the next time bucket. W